In 2030, global Atlantic salmon production is expected to exceed 4 million tons!

In 2030, global Atlantic salmon production is expected to exceed 4 million tons!For more information on export to China, please call SINOLOBEN, service Email: sinoloben@sloben.comsn 90% sold to China.

Global Atlantic salmon production could exceed 4 million tons in eight years, according to a new report from the Norwegian Seafood Council (NSC).

 
In its new report "Fish Markets - Salmon Towards 2030," the NSC says that by 2030, new technologies for offshore farms and at-sea enclosures for Atlantic salmon production are expected to be phased in, while land-based Farm development will continue as planned."
 
The NSC has created three different scenarios for global Atlantic salmon production that are directly dependent on the success of the different farming methods described above.
 
The NSC says, "If we envision a medium-term scenario to 2030, we are talking about a total production of 4.18 million tons in 2030, up 64 percent from 2.5 million tons in 2019."

In addition, under the low and high scenarios also projected by NSC, growth in Atlantic salmon production could be as low as 50 percent to 3.74 million tons or as high as 90 percent to 4.74 million tons in 2030 compared to 2019 data. However, the NSC says both scenarios are uncertain.

 
Looking at the medium-term scenario, Europe, led by Norway, is expected to see the most significant increase in salmon production in the coming years, producing about 2.83 million tons of Atlantic salmon by 2030. This represents 68 percent of the global total and would represent a 67 percent increase over the 1.69 million tons produced in 2019.
 
Conversely, while North American production is expected to increase 127 percent to 306,500 tons, South America is expected to show the lowest increase, averaging 30 percent to 807,200 tons by 2030. Since Africa and Asia will have zero production in 2019, it is not possible to calculate the percentage change in production in these regions.
 
Global demand, consumption expected to grow
 
According to NSC, global demand for salmon has grown more than production since the early 2000s, which has led to significant price increases.
 
Based on expected demand growth in each region, the Council also developed an average scenario for the growth of consumption and the development of cargo flows in each region.
 
The highest percentage increases in consumption are expected in Africa (156 percent growth to 266,000 tons) and South America (103 percent growth to 289,800 tons), but Asia and Oceania could also see consumption growth of more than 80 percent to 600,300 tons and 89,900 tons. The Middle East saw the lowest increase in consumption, up only 36 percent to 84,400 tons.
 
In the report, NSC said, "We see that 2% of salmon consumption in Africa is estimated to come from South America, 4% from Africa, and the remaining 94% from Europe." "In this way, Africa, where salmon production is zero in 2019, is expected to increase the construction of its own salmon farming facilities in the coming years."
 
On the other hand, South America's share of global salmon production is expected to drop from 24 percent to 19 percent by 2030. This results in a 10 percent drop in its market share in Russia, North America and Asia, mainly due to salmon production in these regions and increased competition from European production.
 
NSC also explained, "Following this trend, South America will have the lowest production growth, while the largest supply growth will be 319,400 tons in North America and 289,800 tons in South America."
 
For its part, North America has the highest percentage growth in production among the largest producing regions, with its own supply, as well as supply to other markets, set to increase by more than 100 percent by 2030.
 
Overall, North America is expected to supply its own market with 219,600 tons; Asia with 11,800 tons; Europe with 1,600 tons; the Middle East with 1,400 tons; and Oceania with 100 tons of Atlantic salmon.
 
According to NSC, Europe will also supply Africa and Oceania with the highest percentage increase in Atlantic salmon supply, but the amounts are still relatively small (25,100 and 11,700 tons). In addition, it will supply more than 2 million tons to its own markets.
 
"Asia and North America are also expected to increase their supply from Europe by more than 80%, while Europe will see a slightly lower increase in supply to the continent and the Middle East compared to 2019." It added.
 
Finally, by 2030, North America will have the highest share of salmon consumption produced by land-based aquaculture facilities (17%), followed by Asia (11%) and Europe (6%), according to the commission.
 
According to the NSC, "7.7 percent of global Atlantic salmon production will be raised on land at that time," in addition to "other methods, such as closed sea-based and offshore facilities, which will account for 1 percent and 9 percent of the total, respectively ."

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